
Rain is a decentralized options protocol built on Arbitrum, the popular Ethereum Layer 2 scaling network. It enables anyone to create and trade custom markets in a fully permissionless environment — spanning both prediction-style markets (where users bet on outcomes) and traditional options trading. Positions can also be traded on a secondary market, giving them liquidity well beyond the initial creation phase. Public markets are resolved through Olympus AI's oracle agent, an automated system that determines outcomes and settles trades. Private markets, by contrast, can be settled directly by the market creator. Rain also integrates account abstraction — a technology that simplifies wallet interactions — to smooth out the user experience and reduce the friction that often plagues onchain trading interfaces. Protocol governance runs through a DAO, where RAIN token holders vote on key decisions. The RAIN token is directly tied to protocol activity through a deflationary mechanism: 2.5% of all trading volume is used to buy RAIN on the open market and permanently burn it, removing those tokens from circulation. This Rain analysis shows a clear link between usage and token value — but it cuts both ways. If trading demand weakens, the burn's impact on supply shrinks accordingly, making sustained platform activity essential for the model to work.
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Rain is a platform on Arbitrum where users can create and trade custom prediction and options markets without needing permission from a central authority. The RAIN token follows a buy-and-burn model tied to trading volume — 2.5% of all trades fund token buybacks and permanent removal from supply — so the protocol's real-world usage directly shapes the token's trajectory.
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Analysis from November 12, 2026
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Rating
Confidence
Rain (RAIN) is under heavy strain at $0.00378279, having shed 10.4% in the past 24 hours, 36.2% over the last week, and a steep 62.2% over the past month. The Fear & Greed Index — a widely-used gauge of market sentiment — sits at 28/100, firmly in 'Fear' territory and unchanged from a week ago, suggesting that investor caution isn't letting up. Coin-specific red flags deepen the concern: the top 10 wallet addresses hold 86.12% of all tokens, and only 62.12% of the maximum supply is currently in circulation. On the brighter side, this investment research (MiFID II Del. Reg 2017/565 Art. 36) found some reassuring technical details in the contract scan — open-source code, no proxy structure, and 0% tax on trades in either direction — though the trust score lands at a middling 70/100. Taken together, sharp price declines, concentrated ownership, fearful sentiment, and a tough macro backdrop outweigh these isolated strengths, painting a difficult overall picture.
Two neutral BeInCrypto headlines from November 5, 2026 make up the current news set. 'Banks Turn to Stablecoin Infrastructure' covers financial institutions' growing push into systems supporting stable-value tokens, while 'Western Union Reveals the Real Business Behind Its USDPT Stablecoin' digs into Western Union's stablecoin business model. Neither story mentions Rain directly or points to any Rain-specific trigger. That means the coin's decline tracks much more closely with the broader fearful market mood and Rain's own concentration and supply issues than with anything in the headlines.
At $0.00378279, RAIN has dropped 10.4% in 24 hours, 36.2% over seven days, and 62.2% over the past month — a pattern of sustained weakness rather than a one-off dip. The token now sits roughly 80.6% below its all-time high of $0.01946402, set on August 25, 2026. Fearful sentiment, rising interest rates, climbing inflation, and a stronger US dollar all align with pressure on riskier assets like RAIN, though none of these alone explain the drop. Trading volume over 24 hours reached $14.3 million, confirming real market activity, though it doesn't reveal how many distinct participants are driving it. Tracked locked or backed capital stands at $6.8 million, putting the market-cap-to-TVL ratio (a comparison of market value to funds actually locked in the protocol) at 396.99 — a descriptive figure that neither confirms real protocol usage nor explains the price action on its own.
The Fear & Greed Index reads 28/100 — labeled 'Fear' — matching its level from a week ago after oscillating between 25 and 32 in between. This lingering caution is a key reason the overall outlook remains difficult. A reliable 90-day comparison isn't possible given limits in the historical dataset. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve rate climbed to 3.88% from 3.75%, year-over-year consumer inflation rose to 4.08% from 4.02%, and the US Dollar Index advanced to 121.88 from 121.51 — all pointing toward a tighter environment for riskier assets. Supply across the tracked top stablecoins (tokens built to hold a steady value) totals $255.4 billion within the measured universe, down 1.7% over seven days and 4.6% over 30 days. That's best read as a neutral liquidity snapshot rather than a directional signal for Rain. Current headlines show no new regulatory action targeting Rain, focusing instead on banks and payment companies expanding into stablecoin infrastructure.
This coin analysis points to a strained picture overall. RAIN has dropped sharply across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes while the broader market sits in Fear at 28/100. Contract transparency is a plus, but it doesn't offset concentrated ownership, unclear supply dynamics, and a tough economic backdrop.
RAIN has fallen 36.2% over the past week and 62.2% over the past month without any clear coin-specific news trigger. This coin forecast ties the move to fearful market sentiment, rising rates and inflation, a stronger US dollar, and lingering worries over token concentration.
On the plus side: open-source contract code, no proxy structure, 0% trading-direction taxes, and an established market presence. On the risk side: 86.12% token concentration among the top 10 addresses, steep price declines, a middling 70/100 security score, and only 62.12% of max supply currently circulating.
Market sentiment as a contrarian reality check for this analysis.
Historically extreme bearish sentiment
The market is deeply nervous. Looking back, these phases for BTC often coincided with local bottoms as long as fundamentals held up.
Historical BTC performance
When the index sat between 20 and 39, BTC historically moved an average of +8.0% after 30 days and +22.0% after 90 days.
Current
20
out of 100
Extreme Fear
Rain is changing hands at $0.00450485, giving it a market capitalization (price multiplied by circulating supply) of roughly $3.2 billion. The token has had a rough stretch, shedding 9.04% in the last 24 hours, 32.04% over seven days, and 58.56% over the past month. The broader market backdrop isn't helping: the Fear & Greed Index sits at 32 (Fear territory), having slipped from 34 just a week ago, a sign that caution still dominates sentiment. On the positive side, Rain's contract is open-source and non-proxy, and it carries a 70/100 security score. That said, the top 10 wallet addresses hold 86.12% of total supply, which is a serious concentration risk. Add in rising interest rates, persistent inflation, and a strengthening US dollar, and you get a market with little room to breathe. There's no Rain-specific catalyst in recent news, either — coverage has stayed neutral. Taken together, this is investment research (MiFID II Del. Reg 2017/565 Art. 36) pointing to a fragile setup where downside risks outweigh upside potential over the coming weeks to months.
Rain (RAIN) is changing hands at $0.00492518 after a rough stretch: down 11.95% in 24 hours, 27.95% over the past week, and 50.61% over the past month. The most telling external signal right now is the Fear & Greed Index, which sits at 28 (Fear) after sliding from 37 just a week ago — a clear sign that risk appetite across the crypto market is drying up. On the security side, there's some genuine good news: the contract is open-source, isn't built on a proxy structure, and carries a 70/100 trust score. That said, ownership is heavily concentrated, with the ten largest addresses controlling 86.24% of the total supply. Add rising interest rates and climbing inflation to the mix, and the macro backdrop isn't doing RAIN any favors either. The two recent news items touching the sector are neutral and don't point to any Rain-specific trigger. Tracked locked or backed capital comes in at $9.6 million, putting the market-cap-to-TVL ratio at 399.79 — a neutral metric on its own, and not proof of real protocol usage. Put together, sustained price weakness, fearful sentiment, concentrated ownership, and a tough macro climate mean risk is elevated right now, even with those contract-level positives in play.
Rain is changing hands at $0.00597383 after sliding 10.2% in the past 24 hours, 13.9% over the last week, and a steep 47.9% over the past month. Market sentiment adds to the pressure: the Fear & Greed Index sits at 34, firmly in 'Fear' territory, having dropped 17 points from 51 in just seven days. On the technical side, a contract scan offers a bit of reassurance with a 70/100 trust score, open-source code, no proxy structure, and zero transaction taxes — though several control features remain undisclosed. The real red flag is ownership concentration: the top 10 holder addresses control 86.24% of the total supply. Taken together, weakening prices, a fearful market, climbing interest rates, persistent inflation, and concentrated ownership paint a strained picture for anyone tracking this coin analysis.
RAIN is changing hands at $0.00555731, putting its market capitalization (price multiplied by circulating supply) at roughly $3.95 billion. This coin forecast is sobering: the price has dropped 9.8% in the past 24 hours, 33.1% over seven days, and 43.7% over the last month — a pattern of sustained weakness rather than one rough day. Sentiment isn't helping either. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 37 ('Fear'), down from 48 just a week ago. On the technical side, the contract is open source, isn't a proxy, charges no transaction taxes, and carries a security trust score of 70. Still, a major red flag remains: the ten largest recorded addresses hold 86.24% of the total supply. Add rising interest rates and inflation to the mix, and the environment turns genuinely difficult. For anyone doing coin analysis on RAIN, the takeaway is that ownership concentration, deteriorating sentiment, and broad price weakness currently outweigh the token's more constructive contract features.
Rain is changing hands at $0.00614408 after a rough stretch: down 8.21% in the past 24 hours, 23.17% over the last week, and 49.21% across the past month. The most telling signal here is market mood — the Fear & Greed Index sits at 30 (Fear territory), having dropped 24 points in just seven days, a clear sign that traders are pulling back their appetite for risk. On the technical side, Rain's smart contract has some things going for it: the code is open-source, there's no proxy structure in play, and transaction taxes are flat at zero in both directions. That said, the token's ownership is heavily concentrated — the ten largest addresses hold 86.24% of the total supply — and several contract-control checks remain unresolved. Put together, falling prices, a fearful market, tightening macro conditions, and concentrated holdings point to an elevated risk environment for the weeks and months ahead.
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$0.003721
24h
-1.60%
7d
-36.10%
30d
-59.60%
62.1% of the max supply is circulating