
Bitcoin (BTC) is the world's first decentralized cryptocurrency, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. Its core purpose: enabling peer-to-peer digital payments without banks or governments serving as intermediaries. Every transaction is recorded on a public blockchain — a shared, tamper-resistant ledger — and secured through Proof of Work mining using the SHA-256 algorithm. New blocks are added roughly every 10 minutes. What truly distinguishes Bitcoin is its hard-capped supply of 21 million coins, paired with a built-in halving cycle that cuts miner rewards approximately every four years. This programmed scarcity is the primary reason BTC is so often compared to digital gold. Bitcoin also cracked the double-spending problem without any central authority, producing a form of digital money that is permissionless, censorship-resistant, and free from the control of any single company, government, or individual. The network operates across thousands of computers worldwide, reinforcing its resilience and global accessibility. Bitcoin's sheer scale and first-mover status have made it the benchmark for the entire crypto market. That said, its Proof of Work architecture involves trade-offs: transaction throughput remains limited compared with some newer networks, and price swings can still be dramatic despite the asset's maturity.
These guides mention this coin directly and help you understand it in context.
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Bitcoin is a digital currency that lets people send value directly to each other — no bank required. Its supply is permanently capped at 21 million coins, yet the price can still swing sharply.
Clear bullish / neutral / bearish signal based on market data, on-chain security and macro signals.
Analysis from November 11, 2026
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Rating
Confidence
Bitcoin is changing hands at $74,420, up 1.4% over the past 24 hours — but zoom out and the picture is less encouraging: the asset is still down 7.5% on the week and 9.7% over the past 30 days, so this brief bounce hasn't undone the broader slide. The standout concern in this coin analysis is sentiment: the Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 29 (firmly in 'Fear' territory), having fallen 21 points from 50 in just a week. Add rising interest rates, persistent inflation, and a strengthening US Dollar Index, and risk assets are facing genuine headwinds. On-chain signals offer a more reassuring counterpoint, with price sitting above the $53,891 Realized Price and NUPL holding positive at 0.27, though the 24-hour SOPR is marginally under 1 at 0.994. Active development on the Bitcoin network adds further balance. For now, this coin forecast reflects a market caught between constructive structural fundamentals and clear macroeconomic stress — a tension likely to persist over the coming weeks and months.
Recent headlines are overwhelmingly neutral — all 10 tracked stories fall into that category. Bitcoin Core disclosed three security bugs affecting nodes, though separate coverage noted the vulnerabilities have since been patched, underscoring both the network's ongoing maintenance needs and the operational risks baked into any software-driven system. Elsewhere, Russia's central bank reportedly cleared an exchange to launch crypto trading on November 22, though sanctions tied to a major Russian exchange cloud how significant that move really is. Other stories noted Bitcoin briefly dipping below $73,000, with options markets pricing in a 31% probability of a drop below $70,000 by Christmas — notable, but not a forecast of what's actually coming.
Trading at $74,420, Bitcoin has clawed back above the sub-$73,000 level referenced in recent headlines, posting a 1.4% daily gain. But the bigger trend tells a different story: down 7.5% over seven days and 9.7% over the past month, with price sitting roughly 41% below its all-time high of $126,080. This weakness lines up neatly with souring sentiment, climbing interest rates, rising inflation, and a stronger dollar. Trading volume of $25.37 billion over 24 hours points to solid market activity, though volume alone can't tell us how many distinct participants are driving it. Meanwhile, the 24-hour SOPR — a metric comparing the value coins were spent at versus the value they were created at — sits at 0.994, just under the neutral threshold of 1. Since this figure also captures simple wallet transfers, it shouldn't be read as definitive proof of market-wide pressure or investor behavior.
With the Federal Funds Rate climbing to 3.88% and annual CPI inflation rising to 4.08%, the broader environment has grown less friendly toward risk assets. The US Dollar Index has also strengthened, moving from 121.51 to 121.88. Sentiment has shifted sharply too — Fear & Greed sits at 29, down from 50 just a week earlier, though a reliable 90-day comparison isn't available. Among tracked stablecoins, the top names total $255.6 billion, down 1.6% over seven days and 4.5% over 30 days within this fixed sample — a useful snapshot, though not a signal for where Bitcoin heads next. On the regulatory front, Russia's central bank has reportedly approved exchange-based crypto trading, though sanctions affecting a major local exchange make the real-world impact harder to gauge.
This coin analysis leans toward balanced caution rather than conviction. Active development and solid on-chain readings are offset by Fear & Greed at 29, weak multi-week price performance, and a tough macro backdrop. The picture is closely split, and the model's recent 63% seven-day hit rate points to moderate — not high — confidence.
Bitcoin is up 1.4% over the last 24 hours, but that masks a rougher stretch: down 7.5% over seven days and 9.7% over the past month. This broader weakness coincides with fast-deteriorating sentiment, rising interest rates and inflation, and a stronger US dollar.
On the bullish side: active software development, a predictable fixed supply, and a price that remains above the $53,891 Realized Price. On the bearish side: Fear & Greed at 29, weak momentum over the past month, a restrictive macro environment, and the operational risks flagged by recent Bitcoin Core vulnerability disclosures.
Market sentiment as a contrarian reality check for this analysis.
Historically extreme bearish sentiment
The market is deeply nervous. Looking back, these phases for BTC often coincided with local bottoms as long as fundamentals held up.
Historical BTC performance
When the index sat between 20 and 39, BTC historically moved an average of +8.0% after 30 days and +22.0% after 90 days.
Current
20
out of 100
Extreme Fear
Bitcoin is trading at $75,981 — up a modest 0.47% over the past 24 hours, but down 2.57% over seven days and a steeper 8.01% over the past month, suggesting the broader short-term trend remains soft. The clearest pressure point comes from sentiment: the Fear & Greed Index sits at 28 (Fear), down from 37 a week ago, though it did tick up slightly from 25 the previous day. On-chain metrics — data recorded directly on Bitcoin's blockchain — still look constructive, with the market price holding above the $53,946 Realized Price and NUPL (a measure of aggregate unrealized profit or loss) positive at 0.29. Meanwhile, the macro backdrop has gotten tougher: the Federal Funds Rate has climbed to 3.88% and annual inflation to 4.02%. For anyone following this coin analysis, the mix is mixed on purpose — steady technical development and neutral news provide some balance, but soft sentiment, tighter monetary policy, and the monthly pullback keep uncertainty elevated.
Bitcoin is trading at $78,085, down 1.36% over the past 24 hours, 0.53% over seven days, and 7.69% over the past month. Market sentiment, meanwhile, has shifted noticeably: the Fear & Greed Index climbed from 30 (Fear) to 50 (Neutral) in just a week, suggesting that acute anxiety has faded, though it hasn't yet given way to real optimism. On-chain data from the Bitcoin Research Kit (own full node) shows the price sitting above the $53,988 Realized Price, while positive NUPL and MVRV readings point to unrealized profits prevailing across the network on aggregate. That encouraging backdrop, however, is tempered by rising interest rates, accelerating inflation, soft monthly price action, and headlines describing demand as tepid. Taken together, this investment research (MiFID II Del. Reg 2017/565 Art. 36) shows a market with genuine pockets of resilience, but not quite enough momentum to offset a restrictive macro environment. Uncertainty remains a real factor here too: comparable assessments in the past matched the following seven-day direction only 63% of the time.
Bitcoin is changing hands at $77,883, down 2.67% over the past week and 7.79% over the past month. The Fear & Greed Index has slipped to 37 — squarely in 'Fear' territory — after sitting at 48 just seven days ago, and that souring mood is a key reason for caution here. On-chain data from the Bitcoin Research Kit (sourced from an own full node) shows the price still sitting above the $54,004 Realized Price, which reflects the average price at which coins last changed hands. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is positive at 0.31, meaning the network as a whole is sitting on unrealized gains, while SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is just under 1 at 0.994. Development work hasn't slowed down either: 296 commits landed in the past four weeks, alongside a new Bitcoin Core release bringing privacy fixes and compatibility checks. Put together, solid network fundamentals and steady development are being pulled against by fearful sentiment, ETF outflows, climbing inflation, and higher interest rates — leaving the medium-term picture genuinely split down the middle.
Bitcoin is changing hands at $77,960, having slid 2.30% over the past 24 hours, 4.99% over the week, and 7.44% across the month. The clearest sign of strain comes from sentiment: the Fear & Greed Index has tumbled from 51 to 30 in just seven days, pushing the market firmly into Fear territory and signaling a rapid loss of confidence among crypto traders. Headlines about a major Binance hack and widespread liquidations hit at the same time as this latest leg down — though worth noting, these events relate to an exchange, not a flaw in Bitcoin's underlying network. On-chain data tells a steadier story: price still sits above the $54,067 Realized Price (the average cost basis of coins last moved), NUPL reads a positive 0.33, and MVRV holds at 1.48. Development work hasn't slowed either, with 304 commits over the past four weeks and 17,086 merged pull requests to date. Taken together, this coin analysis shows solid underlying network health and active development being offset by souring sentiment, tightening macro conditions, and a stubborn monthly downtrend.
Bitcoin is changing hands at $79,675, edging up a modest 0.3% over the past 24 hours but still nursing losses of 2.1% over the week and 5.17% over the month. The Fear & Greed Index has slipped to 48 (Neutral), a steep 15-point drop from 63 just a week ago — a sign that the earlier wave of greed has cooled and that the near-term setup looks less encouraging. On-chain data from Bitcoin Research Kit (own full node) tells a steadier story: the current price sits at 1.47 times the $54,060 realized price, NUPL reads a positive 0.32, and MVRV stands at 1.48. Active development work and Bitcoin's hard-capped 21 million supply continue to offer structural footing, even as rising interest rates, climbing inflation, and a largely neutral news cycle keep risk elevated. For anyone following this coin analysis, the picture is one of underlying resilience without a decisive trend — constructive network fundamentals are pulling one way, softening sentiment the other, which is why confidence lands at a moderate level rather than a strong conviction.
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$68,829.00
24h
-4.31%
7d
-9.27%
30d
-15.95%
95.8% of the max supply is circulating
Data as of Nov 13, 2026
MVRV
1.27
Ratio of market value to realized value.
30-day range: 1.27–1.56
NUPL
0.22
Net unrealized profit/loss relative to market value.
30-day range: 0.22–0.36
Realized Price
$53,824
Aggregated on-chain cost basis per BTC.
30-day range: $53,824–$54,069
SOPR
0.987
Spent Output Profit Ratio across a 24-hour window.
30-day range: 0.987–1.027
Holders (100–1,000 BTC)
Balance: 5,242,630 BTC
The combined balance of this bracket decreased by 24,561 BTC over the last 30 days.
Large holders (1,000–10,000 BTC)
Balance: 4,225,882 BTC
The combined balance of this bracket increased by 22,355 BTC over the last 30 days.
Very large holders (10,000–100,000 BTC)
Balance: 2,250,675 BTC
The combined balance of this bracket decreased by 28,864 BTC over the last 30 days.
Largest holders (over 100,000 BTC)
Balance: 719,402 BTC
The combined balance of this bracket increased by 29,314 BTC over the last 30 days.
Cohorts are address-based: an address is not a person — exchange and custody wallets are included, and one person can hold many addresses. The cohorts therefore do not map to entities. Addresses move to another bracket as soon as their balance crosses a threshold, so a bracket's 30-day change is not the same as inflows or outflows of specific holders.
Source: Bitcoin Research Kit (own full node) · Methodology: how CoinVett compiles these figures
These figures are descriptions of historical on-chain data, not a valuation or a recommendation.